Vitalik Buterin On Prediction Markets & AI

Have you read Vitalik Buterin's essay on "Techno Optimism"? 📃

In it, he advocates for the power of prediction markets, and even posits that PMs played by AI could increase their effectiveness!

Let's break down what he said about PMs in the article, in a summarised version of the excerpt:

"I'm a fan of prediction markets, as they help identify the significance of events in real time, before the dust settles. The Sam Altman markets were helpful in summarising the consequences of hour-by-hour negotiations, giving much-needed context to people who only see individual news items.

Prediction markets can be flawed. But Twitter influencers who confidently express what they think will happen over the next year are more flawed.

There is still room to improve prediction markets further. EG: A practical flaw of PMs is their low volume on certain events. A natural way to try and solve this would be to have prediction markets that are played by AIs.

🤯

BRB. Just working on that OpenAI API!

You can read the full article by Vitalik here:
https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno%5Foptimism.html